Markets remain steady as rupee strengthens and crude drops

May 05, 2025

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Market Overview

Nifty opened with a 70-point gap up at 24,419.5, tracking positive global cues. After hitting the day’s low in the initial minutes, the index moved higher, crossing 24,500 within the first 90 minutes. It then cooled off slightly, trading in a narrow range between 24,440 and 24,480 for the rest of the day, ultimately closing at 24,461.15, up by 0.47%.

The market remained rangebound, with geopolitical tensions weighing on sentiment. However, FII inflows, a weaker dollar, and steady global cues helped provide support. Looking ahead, attention will be on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, which could shape near-term market sentiment.

Broader Market Performance:

The broader market had a strong day today, with 2,984 stocks traded on the NSE. Of these, 2,023 advanced, 865 declined, and 96 remained unchanged.

Sectoral Performance:

Nifty Auto emerged as the top-gaining sector with a 1.85% rise, while Nifty Bank was the top loser, slipping 0.36%. Out of the 12 sectoral indices listed, 10 ended in the green and 2 closed in the red.

Note: The above numbers for Commodity futures were taken around 5 pm. Here’s the trend of FII-DII activity from the last 5 days:

Change in OI for the day

The following is the change in OI for Nifty contracts expiring on 8th May:

The maximum Call Open Interest (OI) is observed at 24,500, followed closely by 24,600, indicating strong resistance at 24,500 with ultimate resistance at 24,800 levels.
The maximum Put Open Interest (OI) is 24,000, followed by 24,400, suggesting strong support at 24,300 and additional support at 24,000.

Note: OI is subject to multiple interpretations, but generally, an increase in the call OI indicates resistance in a falling market, and an increase in the put OI indicates support in a rising market.

Source: Sensibull

Tijori is an investment research platform, and they have constructed niche indices for various themes and sub-sectors. They help you understand the market performance of narrow slices of the market. You can also track the Promoter buying and other interesting stuff like Capex activity by the companies in the Tijori App’s idea dashboard

What’s happening in India

Kotak Mahindra Bank reported a 14% YoY decline in Q4FY25 net profit to Rs 3,551.74 crore. Net interest income (NII) rose 4.5% YoY to Rs 7,283.57 crore. Total income grew 6.8% YoY, while total expenditure increased by 14.4%. The bank's asset quality remained stable with Gross Non-Performing Assets (GNPA) at 1.42% and Net Non-Performing Assets (NNPA) at 0.31%. Dive deeper

Adani Group stocks saw strong gains after reports emerged that representatives for Gautam Adani and his companies met with US officials to seek the dismissal of criminal charges. The talks, which began earlier this year, gained momentum and could lead to a resolution in the coming month. Dive deeper

Marico's Q4FY25 net profit rose 8% YoY to Rs 343 crore, with revenue increasing 20% to Rs 2,730 crore. While EBITDA grew, margins contracted due to higher input costs. The company anticipates improved consumption in FY26, supported by government initiatives and positive monsoon forecasts. Dive deeper

Mahindra & Mahindra reported a 25% YoY increase in Q4FY25 revenue, reaching ₹31,353 crore, driven by strong growth and execution. The company’s net profit rose 19.6% to ₹2,437 crore, and EBITDA grew 39% to ₹4,683 crore. M&M's auto and farm equipment segments saw strong volume growth, and the company declared a ₹25.3 per share dividend. Dive deeper

Swiggy's quick-service delivery arm, Bolt, expanded to 500 cities across India, now contributing over 10% of Swiggy's total orders with 45,000 restaurants onboard. This expansion comes as rival Zomato exits its 10-minute delivery service. Dive deeper

The US seeks tariff cuts and regulatory reforms in its trade deal with India, including changes in agriculture, e-commerce, and remanufactured goods policies. India resists these to protect domestic industries and maintain regulatory control. Ongoing negotiations will focus on easing restrictions across various sectors. Dive deeper

CDSL reported a 22% YoY decline in PAT to Rs 100.39 crore for Q4FY25, with revenue falling 6.7% YoY to Rs 224.45 crore. The decline was attributed to a dip in depository activity revenue and a sharp fall in data entry and storage revenue. The board also recommended a final dividend of Rs 12.50 per share. Dive deeper

Macrotech Developers plans to launch Rs 19,000 crore housing projects in FY26 across Mumbai, Pune, and Bengaluru. The company targets strong growth in pre-sales and land acquisitions with over Rs 8,000 crore investment this fiscal. Dive deeper

Private equity firms True North, Indium IV, and Silver Leaf Oak have sold approximately 1.04 crore shares of AU Small Finance Bank, valued at around ₹600 crore, through a block deal. The shares were sold at a floor price of ₹650 each, reflecting a nearly 4% discount to the previous closing price. Dive deeper

Kotak Mahindra Bank is re-evaluating its microfinance strategy due to challenges with the Joint Liability Group (JLG) model, with stress expected to continue in the coming quarters. While personal loan and credit card stress have eased, microfinance remains a concern. The bank remains cautiously optimistic about growth in FY26.. Dive deeper

Azad Engineering announced a $53.5 million agreement with GE Vernova’s Steam Power Services business for supplying airfoils to the nuclear and thermal power industries. The six-year contract, running through 2030, strengthens the company's position in the global power generation supply chain. Dive deeper

Oberoi Realty announced strong bookings worth Rs 970 crore from the launch of Elysian Tower D at Oberoi Garden City, Goregaon. The project saw bookings for 2.1 lakh sq. ft. of RERA carpet area and 3.25 lakh sq. ft. of saleable area. Dive deeper

Samsung is challenging a $520 million tax demand in India, alleging misclassification of imports and claiming Indian authorities were aware of the practice, as Reliance Jio had done the same. The tax demand, along with an $81 million fine, brings the total to $601 million. Samsung argues it was not given a fair opportunity to present its case. Dive deeper

Shares of InterGlobe Aviation, Asian Paints, MRF, and fuel retailers rose as Brent crude oil prices fell below $60 per barrel after OPEC+ announced a production hike. Lower crude prices reduce input costs for airlines, paint companies, and tyre manufacturers, boosting profitability. Dive deeper

NHB-led RDCL plans to issue Rs 10,000-12,000 crore in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) in FY26. On Monday, RDCL listed its first RMBS worth Rs 1,000 crore with a 7.26% monthly coupon, backed by LIC Housing Finance loans. The issue was fully subscribed, and another Rs 1,000 crore tranche is expected next month. Dive deeper

What’s happening globally

Warren Buffett announced he would step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway after leading the company for 60 years. The board unanimously voted to appoint Vice Chairman Greg Abel as the new CEO, with Buffett continuing as chairman. Dive deeper

WTI crude oil futures dropped over 2% to $56.9 per barrel as OPEC+ plans to raise output by 411,000 bpd in June, increasing supply concerns. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also escalated, with Israel vowing retaliation against the Houthis and Iran warning of counterattacks. Dive deeper

Gold rose to around $3,260 per ounce, boosted by a weaker U.S. dollar and uncertainty around U.S.-China trade talks. President Trump stated that China wants a deal, but no timeline was provided. Investors are also focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting, with expectations of steady interest rates. Dive deeper

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note remained at 4.3%, reflecting inflation risks amid economic uncertainty from the Trump administration's tariffs. Dive deeper

The S&P Global Russia Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.3 in April from 48.2 in March, signaling a slower decline in factory activity. Foreign sales remained weak, but input price inflation eased for the fifth consecutive month. Dive deeper

The Taiwan dollar surged 4.5% to a two-year high, its biggest jump since 1988, amid ongoing US trade talks. The central bank did not intervene to stabilize the currency. The rally reflects expectations of favorable trade deals and US dollar rebalancing. Dive deeper

The Australian dollar rose above $0.645 after Prime Minister Albanese secured a second term, with pledges to address cost-of-living pressures and expand renewable energy. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut interest rates in May amid easing inflation. Dive deeper

Turkey's annual inflation rate eased to 37.86% in April 2025, down from 38.10% in March, marking the 11th consecutive month of decline. Price growth slowed in several categories, including food, beverages, and education, while housing, transport, and clothing saw higher costs. Core inflation also decreased to 37.12%, its lowest level since December 2021. Dive deeper

Volvo Cars' battery company, Novo Energy, announced a 50% reduction in its workforce to cut costs after evaluating its business following the bankruptcy of Northvolt, which originally co-owned the venture. The company is continuing its search for a new technology partner and aims to produce batteries in the Gothenburg area of Sweden in the long term. Dive deeper

Blackstone offered a €200 million return guarantee to secure a €1 billion investment in its European property fund. The guarantee, promising a 9.25% annual return, helped acquire a 50% stake in UK railway arches. This follows a similar deal with the University of California in 2022 to manage fund redemptions. Dive deeper

Management chatter

In this section, we pick out interesting comments made by the management of major companies and policymakers of the Indian and Global Economy.

Pralay Mondal, MD, CSB Bank on gold loan growth

"The sustained increase in gold prices has naturally enhanced the borrowing potential for customers, making gold loans a more attractive option."
"We’ve seen a shift from the unorganised sector to banks due to regulatory tightening on unsecured loans."
"This segment historically shows low delinquencies and short tenure, which allows for efficient risk management." - Link

Ben Powell, Chief Investment Strategist, BlackRock Investment Institute, on India’s market outlook

"India is benefiting from multiple tailwinds – lower oil prices, geopolitical positioning, and strong domestic fundamentals."

"We see India as both a relative and potential absolute winner in a fractured global economy."

"The digital leap, demographics, and increased financial market participation make India structurally attractive for long-term global capital." - Link

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Calendars

In the coming days, we have the following significant events and corporate actions:

That’s it from us for today. We’d love to hear your feedback in the comments, and feel free to share this with your friends to spread the word!

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