Vertical surge in crude oil prices rattle markets
Nifty closes sharply lower near 24,000 despite some recovery intraday
Welcome to Aftermarket Report, a newsletter where we do a quick daily wrap-up of what happened in the markets, both in India and globally.
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Market Overview
Nifty opened with a huge gap-down of 582 points at 23,868, reacting to heightened tensions in the Middle East after damage to key oil infrastructure and supply disruptions triggered a nearly 20% spike in crude prices. The index saw some stabilisation after the sharp opening fall till the 23,700-720 zone, before gradually recovering through the early part of the session as panic selling eased.
Through the late morning session, Nifty traded with a mild recovery bias, steadily climbing toward the 23,850–23,900 range by noon. The index remained choppy but broadly held above 23,850 as buying interest slowly returned.
In the last hour, momentum improved further with a steady grind higher. Nifty extended gains toward the 24,000–24,050 zone in the final hour before settling at 24,028.05, marking a strong intraday recovery from the sharp gap-down start, even as markets remained cautious amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and elevated crude prices.
Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain sensitive to global geopolitical news and risk appetite, news flow around AI-led disruptions, and key domestic cues.
Broader Market Performance:
The broader market had an extremely weak session today. Of the 3,370 stocks that traded on the NSE, 640 advanced, 2,631 declined, and 99 remained unchanged.
Sectoral Performance:
Nifty IT was the only sector to close in green, gaining 0.08%, while Nifty Auto was the top loser, falling 4.10%. Overall, 1 sector closed in green, and 11 sectors ended in red.
Here’s the trend of FII-DII activity from the last 5 days:
Change in OI for the day
The following is the change in OI for Nifty contracts expiring on 10th March:
The maximum Call Open Interest (OI) is observed at 24,000, followed by 24,500 & 24,800, indicating potential resistance at the 24,300 -24,400 levels.
The maximum Put Open Interest (OI) is observed at 23,800, followed by 23,700, suggesting support at 23,800-23,700.
Note: OI is subject to multiple interpretations; however, generally, an increase in Call OI indicates resistance in a falling market, while an increase in Put OI indicates support in a rising market.
Source: Sensibull
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What’s happening in India
The Indian rupee posted its steepest weekly decline in a month, falling to 82.50, pressured by escalating Middle East tensions that pushed oil prices higher and triggered risk-off sentiment in global markets. Dive deeper
India’s 10-year G-Sec yield rose to around 6.75%, nearing a one-month high as surging crude prices and a weaker rupee triggered selling in government bonds. Dive deeper
The RBI injected ₹50,000 crore into the banking system through OMO purchases of government securities to manage liquidity ahead of advance tax and GST outflows. System liquidity currently remains in surplus at around ₹2.41 lakh crore. Dive deeper
Indonesia has signed an agreement with India to procure the BrahMos missile system as part of efforts to modernise its maritime defence capabilities. Dive deeper
Reliance Industries and ONGC shares were in focus after global crude oil prices surged nearly 20% amid escalating US-Israel-Iran tensions, raising fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East. Dive deeper
India’s state-run banks are planning fresh green bond issuances after Bank of Baroda’s successful ₹10,000 crore green infrastructure bond, which drew strong investor demand at a 7.10% coupon. Dive deeper
Meesho shares plunged about 10% after the company disclosed a ₹1,500 crore tax demand from the Income Tax Department, triggering sharp investor reaction. Dive deeper
PG Electroplast shares tumbled about 13% after the company reported a disruption in LPG supply under its gas purchase agreement, triggered by the ongoing Middle East conflict. Dive deeper
Shares of IOC, HPCL, and BPCL fell due to rising uncertainty from surging crude oil prices amid the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Dive deeper
India’s government said the recent surge in global oil prices is unlikely to significantly push up domestic inflation, noting that inflation currently remains near the lower bound of the RBI’s target range. Dive deeper
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are rotating funds out of IT stocks and into financials and capex-linked sectors such as capital goods, automobiles and construction, amid concerns about AI’s potential impact on traditional IT services models. Dive deeper
What’s happening globally
Brent crude surged to around $105 per barrel, after briefly rallying near $120, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz forced several Middle Eastern producers to cut output. Dive deeper
Gold fell to around $5,110 per ounce as a stronger US dollar and reduced expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts outweighed safe-haven demand from Middle East tensions. Dive deeper
The dollar index rose above 99.5, hitting a three-month high as oil prices topped $100 per barrel and heightened Middle East tensions boosted safe-haven demand. Dive deeper
European equities fell sharply, with the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 dropping over 2% to their lowest levels since November 2025, as oil prices above $100 reignited inflation concerns. Dive deeper
Germany’s 10-year Bund yield rose above 2.9%, nearing its highest level since 2011, as oil prices above $100 per barrel heightened inflation concerns linked to the Middle East conflict. Dive deeper
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 2.22%, a three-week high, as oil prices above $100 per barrel heightened concerns over inflation and energy supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict. Dive deeper
China’s annual inflation rose to 1.3% in February, the highest since January 2023, driven largely by Lunar New Year-related increases in food and services prices. Dive deeper
Management chatter
In this section, we highlight interesting comments from the management of major companies and policymakers in the Indian and Global Economies.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on the potential impact of the recent crude oil spike on India’s Inflation:
“Given that India’s inflation is near the lower bound, the impact on inflation is not estimated to be substantial at this point."
“However, the medium-term impact of the global crude oil price rise on inflation depends on several factors, including exchange rate movements, global demand and supply situation, monetary policy transmission, the state of general inflation, and the extent of the indirect pass-through." - Link
Mark Matthews, Head of Asia Research, Julius Baer, on Oil and the current crisis:
“Strategic oil bets may outperform in the current geopolitical crisis.”
“Oil is one of the few assets that can benefit directly from geopolitical tensions.”
“Energy stocks and oil-linked investments could see stronger performance if the conflict persists.” - Link
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Calendars
In the coming days, we have the following significant events and corporate actions:
That’s it from us for today. We’d love to hear your feedback in the comments, and feel free to share this with your friends to spread the word!
There is typo for rupee 82.5 instead of 92.5