Sharp late rally helps Nifty close above 24,150
Oil prices continue to trend lower; All eyes on Reliance AGM tomorrow
Welcome to Aftermarket Report, a newsletter where we do a quick daily wrap-up of what happened in the markets, both in India and globally.
In our latest episode of In The Money by Zerodha, we explore one of the most misunderstood ideas in markets: the difference between correlation and causation — and why getting it wrong has a very real price.
We start with a story you won’t forget: a quant from MIT who predicted the S&P 500 with 99% accuracy using butter production and sheep. The math was spotless. The logic was nonexistent. And that’s exactly the point.
Correlation tells you that two things move together. Causation tells you why. Markets generate enormous data — and enormous data generates endless opportunities to find patterns that look meaningful but aren’t.
Markets Today
Nifty opened flat at 24,074, tracking soft global cues after the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates while striking a slightly hawkish tone. After a muted start, the index moved higher in the opening hour, climbing toward the 24,130–24,140 zone before losing momentum.
Selling pressure emerged through the late morning session, dragging Nifty steadily lower. The index slipped to the day’s low near 24,040 around 11:15 AM before staging a gradual recovery, with Nifty reclaiming the 24,100 mark and moving into the 24,120–24,130 range by 12:30 PM. However, the momentum faded again post 2 PM, leading to another bout of choppy trading around the 24,090–24,120 zone.
A sharp surge in the final 30 minutes changed the complexion of the session. Nifty rallied nearly 90 points from intraday levels, breaking above 24,170 and eventually closing near the day’s high at 24,168.
The session was marked by a weak first half, range-bound trading through most of the afternoon, and a strong late rally that helped Nifty finish comfortably above the 24,150 mark.
Sectoral Indices Performance
Realty led with 0.69%, followed by Banks and PSU Banks at 0.66%, and Pharma at 0.56%. IT lagged due to the Fed’s hawkish stance, down 1.19%, while Metal stayed flat and Auto barely moved at 0.08%. Ten of twelve sectors closed green.
Winners & Losers
Momentum Screener
Commodities
Global Markets
Bond Yields & Currency
FII / DII Flows
Here’s the trend of FII-DII activity from the last 5 days:
Thematic Indices
Tijori’s niche indices, where today’s move sorts pockets of the market beyond standard sector baskets. You can also track promoter buying and other interesting stuff, like Capex activity by the companies in the Tijori App’s idea dashboard
Change in OI for the day
The following is the change in OI for Nifty contracts expiring on 23rd June:
The maximum Call Open Interest (OI) is observed at 24,500, followed by 24,200, indicating potential resistance at the 24,200 -24,300 levels.
The maximum Put Open Interest (OI) is observed at 24,000, followed by 24,100, suggesting support at 24,000-23,900.
Note: OI is subject to multiple interpretations; however, generally, an increase in Call OI indicates resistance in a falling market, while an increase in Put OI indicates support in a rising market.
Source: Sensibull
Top Stories in India
India’s monsoon has made a weak start, with rainfall running nearly 40% below normal so far this season as per IMD, raising concerns over crop sowing and economic activity. The rainfall deficit, linked to the emerging El Niño weather pattern, could impact production of key crops such as rice and soybeans while also slowing sectors like construction that depend heavily on monsoon conditions. Dive deeper
Water tanker prices in Mumbai have risen sharply after the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation reduced water supply amid a delayed monsoon and growing shortages. Dive deeper
NSE has filed its draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) for a long-awaited IPO, paving the way for one of India’s largest public offerings. The issue is entirely an offer for sale, with existing shareholders divesting around a 6% stake. Dive deeper
JBM Auto said its electric mobility unit has secured a ₹750 crore long-term investment from Motilal Oswal to deploy 2,000 electric buses and expand sustainable public transport infrastructure. The company described it as the largest investment by an Indian investor in the electric mobility sector to date. Dive deeper
L'Oréal will acquire a majority stake in Indian startup Innovist, strengthening its presence in one of the world's fastest-growing beauty markets. The acquisition adds digital-first brands such as Bare Anatomy and Chemist at Play to L'Oréal’s portfolio, expanding its offering of science-led products tailored for Indian consumers. Dive deeper
Bata India shares surged over 16% after the company appointed Sanjay Rao as its new MD and CEO. Rao joins from Nike, bringing more than two decades of retail and consumer sector experience across India, Asia, China, and Europe, a move investors viewed positively for the company’s growth strategy. Dive deeper
The RBI has approved a 90-day extension for Keki Mistry as part-time chairman of HDFC Bank beyond June 18. The extension provides continuity while the bank finalizes the selection of a permanent chairman and prepares to submit its recommendation to the RBI. Dive deeper
Top Stories Globally
The Federal reserve unanimously voted to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, marking the fourth consecutive policy hold. The latest dot plot signaled a more hawkish outlook, with nine of the 18 policymakers expecting at least one rate hike by the end of 2026 and six projecting two 25-basis-point increases. Dive deeper
WTI crude oil fell to around $75 per barrel, its lowest level since early March, as markets reacted to a US-Iran agreement aimed at ending the conflict that had disrupted global oil supplies. Dive deeper
The U.S. Dollar Index climbed above 100.7, its highest level since May 2025, after the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged but signaled a more hawkish outlook and comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation back to its 2% target. Dive deeper
Accenture narrowed its full-year revenue growth forecast to 3%-4% in local currency, while reporting a decline in new bookings to $19.3 billion from $19.7 billion a year ago. Despite revenue rising 6% year-on-year to $18.7 billion, the weaker outlook and softer bookings weighed on sentiment, sending the stock down nearly 12% in pre-market trading. Dive deeper
Apple has agreed to work with Intel to design and manufacture chips in the United States, according to comments from Donald Trump. The partnership is seen as part of broader efforts to strengthen domestic semiconductor manufacturing and reduce reliance on overseas chip production. Dive deeper
Meta has expanded its Teen Account protections across Instagram, Facebook, and Messenger, rolling out stricter default content controls globally for users aged 13 and above. Dive deeper
BHP Group, the world’s largest miner from Australia, will take a $2.3 billion writedown on its Jansen potash project in Canada after another round of cost overruns and delays. The company raised the estimated cost of the phase-two expansion to $6.9 billion from $4.9 billion and now expects production to begin toward the end of 2031. Dive deeper
The Bank of England voted 7-2 to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75%, balancing easing inflation pressures against ongoing uncertainty in global energy markets. While two policymakers favored a 25-basis-point rate hike, the central bank noted that energy prices have moderated since the previous meeting but remain elevated and volatile due to Middle East-related disruptions. Dive deeper
Management Chatter
In this section, we highlight interesting comments from the management of major companies and policymakers in the Indian and Global Economies.
Sudhir Singh, MD & CEO of Coforge, says that the company's FY30 vision is largely based on maintaining the growth trajectory:
“For starters, it's not terribly ambitious. All that we are saying is that we will continue the growth rate that we've been on for the last nine years.”
“If all we do over the next four years is one acquisition of about $500 million and just maintain the rate that we've been on, we should by FY30 have a $5 billion organisation.” - Link
C Vijayakumar, CEO & MD of HCL Tech on R&D and partnership with Sarvam:
HCL Tech probably spends the highest in R&D among the IT services firms. We have created products and are continuously launching new products. But obviously, we did not invest in building a model. But it’s never too late, and this partnership really offers an excellent opportunity to fill that gap.
It’s not an exclusive partnership. But we are going to build a lot of solutions together. We are going to take these solutions to a lot of enterprise clients. Sovereign AI and air-gapped solutions for corporations who need it, especially in regulated industries. - Link
Corporate Actions & Events
Corporate Actions
Published by Zerodha. Not investment advice. Data from NSE, BSE, and MCX.
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