Oil spike spoils recovery chances...once again
Nifty sheds nearly 1% ; Broader market remains resilient
Welcome to Aftermarket Report, a newsletter where we do a quick daily wrap-up of what happened in the markets, both in India and globally.
In our latest episode of In The Money by Zerodha video series, we break down the five stages of trader evolution and explain how our thinking about markets changes over time, from naive optimism to a more realistic understanding of risk, probability, and survival in trading.
Market Overview
Nifty opened with a 192-point gap-down at 23,675 as oil prices flared up once again amid growing geopolitical tensions. After the weak start, the index slipped further toward the 23,550–23,570 zone in the opening minutes before staging a quick rebound as Nifty recovered steadily through the first hour, pushing the index back toward the 23,650–23,700 range.
Through the late morning session, the recovery gathered momentum with Nifty climbing further and briefly testing the 23,730–23,760 zone around noon. However, the index struggled to sustain higher levels and turned choppy thereafter, oscillating within a narrow range as profit-taking emerged.
In the second half, Nifty saw another brief push higher, testing the 23,800–23,820 zone around 1:30 PM. The gains, however, were short-lived as selling pressure resurfaced in the last 2 hours. The index gradually drifted lower towards the 23,600-620 zone and eventually settled at 23,639.15, ending the day slightly below its opening levels after a volatile session marked by an early recovery and late selling pressure.
Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain sensitive to global geopolitical developments, risk appetite, AI-related news flow, and key domestic cues.
Broader Market Performance:
The broader market had a weak session today. Of the 3,302 stocks that traded on the NSE, 1,237 advanced, 1,963 declined, and 102 remained unchanged.
Sectoral Performance:
Nifty Energy was the top gainer, rising 1.93%, while Nifty Auto was the top loser, falling 3.19%. Overall, 3 sectors closed in green, and 9 sectors ended in red.
Here’s the trend of FII-DII activity from the last 5 days:
Change in OI for the day
The following is the change in OI for Nifty contracts expiring on 17th March:
The maximum Call Open Interest (OI) is observed at 24,000, followed by 23,700, indicating potential resistance at the 23,900 -24,000 levels.
The maximum Put Open Interest (OI) is observed at 23,500, followed by 23,600, suggesting support at 23,500-23,400.
Note: OI is subject to multiple interpretations; however, generally, an increase in Call OI indicates resistance in a falling market, while an increase in Put OI indicates support in a rising market.
Source: Sensibull
Tijori is an investment research platform that has constructed niche indices for various themes and sub-sectors. They help you understand the market performance of narrow slices of the market. You can also track the Promoter buying and other interesting stuff, like Capex activity by the companies in the Tijori App’s idea dashboard
What’s happening in India
India’s retail inflation rose to 3.21% in February from 2.74% in January, mainly driven by an increase in food inflation to 3.47%. Despite the uptick, overall inflation remained below the RBI’s 4% target, with rural inflation at 3.37% and urban inflation at 3.02%. Dive deeper
The Indian rupee hit a record low near 92.35 per dollar as a surge in global oil prices and risk-off sentiment linked to the Middle East conflict pressured Asian currencies. Dive deeper
NSE has selected 20 merchant bankers and other intermediaries for its long-awaited IPO, marking progress toward its public listing. Dive deeper
HCL Technologies expanded its partnership with Google Cloud to accelerate adoption of agentic AI using Gemini Enterprise and Gemini models. The collaboration will focus on building custom AI agents for global clients, enhancing workflows, security, and operational efficiency across enterprise systems. Dive deeper
MSME fintech Progcap said it has enabled over ₹10,000 crore in credit for women entrepreneurs through its ProgShakti initiative. Dive deeper
The government said petrol and diesel prices are expected to remain stable despite Middle East tensions, citing adequate fuel and LPG stocks. Dive deeper
India’s rice exports have slowed as the Middle East conflict pushes up freight and insurance costs, making it harder for exporters to secure vessels for shipments. Dive deeper
India’s home prices are expected to rise around 5% annually through 2028, driven by strong demand in the premium housing segment. Dive deeper
A CRISIL report warned that India Inc could see a 50-basis-point margin squeeze in FY27 due to rising input costs and competitive pressures. Dive deeper
What’s happening globally
WTI crude briefly rose above $95 per barrel as escalating risks from the Iran conflict and disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz heightened supply concerns. Dive deeper
Gold traded near $5,180 per ounce, remaining under pressure as rising oil prices lifted inflation concerns and reduced expectations of interest rate cuts. Dive deeper
Silver fell toward $84 per ounce, pressured by rising inflation concerns and expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts. Dive deeper
The dollar index rose toward 99.5, extending gains for a third session as surging oil prices heightened inflation concerns and reduced expectations of Fed rate cuts. Dive deeper
Germany’s 10-year Bund yield rose to 2.95%, its highest since October 2023, as escalating Middle East tensions and rising oil prices fueled inflation concerns. Dive deeper
The Pentagon may allow limited continued use of Anthropic’s AI tools beyond the planned six-month phase-out, according to an internal memo. Dive deeper
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1%, and the Topix dropped 1.3%, ending a two-day rebound as rising oil prices renewed inflation concerns amid the ongoing Iran conflict. Dive deeper
Australia’s consumer inflation expectations rose to 5.2% in March, the highest since July 2023, ahead of the RBA’s upcoming policy meeting. Dive deeper
Management chatter
In this section, we highlight interesting comments from the management of major companies and policymakers in the Indian and Global Economies.
Rakshat Kapoor, Head of Private Credit & CIO, Motilal Oswal Alternates on the Private Credit Market:
“India’s private credit market is well insulated from global turbulence.”
“The dominance of domestic capital and strong regulatory oversight provides stability to the sector.”
“Demand from mid-market enterprises and alternative investment funds continues to drive steady growth.” - Link
Anil Gupta, Chairman and MD of KEI Industries, on demand softness for wires:
The retail wire segment saw slower movement in February as dealers reduced inventories after building significant stock in December and January, when copper prices surged sharply.
"There is no loss of demand. If shipments don't happen this month, they will happen next month. In cables, there is no demand destruction. At most, there may be a short deferment in purchases, but projects cannot proceed without cables." - Link
🧑🏻💻Have you checked out The Chatter?
Every week, we listen to the big Indian earnings calls—Reliance, HDFC Bank, and even smaller logistics firms—and copy the full transcripts. We then remove the fluff and keep only the sentences that could move a share price: a surprise price hike, a cut-back on factory spending, a warning about weak monsoon sales, or a hint from management on RBI liquidity. We add a quick, one-line explainer and a timestamp so you can trace the quote back to the call. The whole thing lands in your inbox as one sharp page of facts you can read in three minutes—no 40-page decks, no jargon, just the hard stuff that matters for your trades and your macro view.
Go check out The Chatter here.
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Calendars
In the coming days, we have the following significant events and corporate actions:
That’s it from us for today. We’d love to hear your feedback in the comments, and feel free to share this with your friends to spread the word!