Nifty stalls near 25,500 after volatile, choppy trade
Lack of follow through continues on both sides
Welcome to Aftermarket Report, a newsletter where we do a quick daily wrap-up of what happened in the markets, both in India and globally.
In our latest episode of In The Money by Zerodha video series, we begin a new series on one of the most fundamental concepts in intraday trading — the Opening Range Breakout (ORB).
We start from first principles by defining what the opening range represents, tracing its evolution into a rule-based framework through traders like Toby Crabel, and then testing a time-based ORB on NIFTY across multiple windows to see how breakout timing affects equity curves, drawdowns, win rates, and long–short behaviour.
Market Overview
Nifty opened with a 74-point gap-up at 25,556, tracking strong global cues. However, the index remained highly volatile in the first half, witnessing multiple swings between 25,490 and 25,550 as early momentum failed to sustain.
Around 11:30 AM, a sharp bout of selling dragged Nifty swiftly toward the 25,450 zone. The weakness continued into the early afternoon, with the index slipping further to intraday lows near the 25,400–25,410 range around 12:30 PM. In the second half, Nifty stayed volatile but gradually stabilised between 25,400 and 25,450. A late recovery in the final hour lifted the index toward the 25,510–25,520 zone before it eventually settled at 25,496.55, well off the day’s highs. A strong gap-up, sharp intraday volatility, mid-session weakness, and a partial recovery into the close marked the session.
Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain sensitive to global risk appetite, news flow around AI-led disruptions, and key domestic cues.
Broader Market Performance:
The broader market had a mixed session, slightly tilted towards bullish bias today. Of the 3,259 stocks that traded on the NSE, 1,686 advanced, 1,460 declined, and 113 remained unchanged.
Sectoral Performance:
Nifty Pharma was the top gainer, rising 1.08%, while Nifty Media was the top loser, falling 0.68%. Overall, 9 sectors closed in green, and 3 sectors ended in red.
Here’s the trend of FII-DII activity from the last 5 days:
Change in OI for the day
The following is the change in OI for Nifty contracts expiring on 2nd March:
The maximum Call Open Interest (OI) is observed at 26,000, followed by 25,500, 25,600 & 25,700, indicating potential resistance at the 25,600 -25,700 levels.
The maximum Put Open Interest (OI) is observed at 25,000, followed by 25,400 & 25,500, suggesting support at 25,300-25,200.
Note: OI is subject to multiple interpretations; however, generally, an increase in Call OI indicates resistance in a falling market, while an increase in Put OI indicates support in a rising market.
Source: Sensibull
Tijori is an investment research platform that has constructed niche indices for various themes and sub-sectors. They help you understand the market performance of narrow slices of the market. You can also track the Promoter buying and other interesting stuff, like Capex activity by the companies in the Tijori App’s idea dashboard
What’s happening in India
India’s 10-year G-Sec yield rose to around 6.7% as markets turned cautious ahead of the ₹320 billion auction of the 2035 bond, with demand and cut-off yields likely to guide March’s direction. Dive deeper
The rupee closed slightly higher, supported by regional currency strength and interbank dollar sales, while elevated dollar demand at the reference rate kept gains in check. Dive deeper
Defence stocks rallied on reports of a potential defence agreement between India and Israel, with investors anticipating fresh orders and technology collaborations in missile defence and advanced weapons systems. Dive deeper
SEBI has revamped mutual fund categorisation by introducing Life Cycle Funds, discontinuing the Solution Oriented Schemes category, and tightening naming and disclosure norms to ensure schemes remain true-to-label. Dive deeper
Xiaomi has challenged an Indian tax ruling alleging $72 million in unpaid tariffs on royalty payments, in a case that could set a precedent for contract manufacturing practices in the country. Dive deeper
Credit card spends in India moderated in January after peaking during the December festival season, indicating a pullback in consumer discretionary outlays. Dive deeper
NRI deposit inflows declined 16% to $11.20 billion during April-December FY26, reversing the sharp 42.8% surge to $13.33 billion in the same period of FY25. The moderation follows two years of strong growth—72.7% in FY24 and 42.8% in FY25—reflecting episodic volatility in overseas Indian deposit flows. Dive deeper
What’s happening globally
Brent crude fell over 1.5% to below $70 per barrel as markets weighed progress in US-Iran nuclear talks alongside rising crude exports from key Middle Eastern producers. Dive deeper
Gold held above $5,180 per ounce near a four-week high, supported by geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over US trade policy, including prospects of higher tariffs. Dive deeper
Silver eased toward $87 per ounce after touching a three-week high, as investors assessed US-Iran nuclear talks and expectations that US interest rates may remain steady. Dive deeper
US stock futures declined as investors digested fresh corporate earnings, with Nvidia’s results offering reassurance on AI demand while Salesforce fell on weaker guidance. Dive deeper
Sterling slipped to $1.35 as investors tracked a key UK by-election that could have implications for Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership and fiscal policy outlook. Dive deeper
The Japanese yen strengthened past 156 per dollar as hawkish remarks from Bank of Japan officials supported expectations of further rate hikes and lifted domestic yields. Dive deeper
Australia’s capital expenditure rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, slowing sharply from the previous quarter but exceeding expectations, supported by continued growth in building and infrastructure investment. Dive deeper
Management chatter
In this section, we highlight interesting comments made by the management of major companies and policymakers from the Indian and Global Economies.
Tuhin Kanta Pandey, Chairperson, Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), on AI tools:
“We are increasingly using AI tools to monitor financial influencers, detect violations, and ensure compliance — including real-time detection of insider trading and unregistered investment advice.”
“AI offers powerful tools for surveillance and fraud detection, but it also brings risks — opacity, bias, and concentration of technological power — so regulation must evolve to supervise systems and technology.”
“We are deploying advanced technology to enhance surveillance and strengthen market integrity and investor protection.” - Link
Yuvraj Shah, Senior Vice President & Head of Equity Research, IIFL Securities, on Banking system trends:
“Public sector banks are better placed on loan-deposit metrics relative to their peers, which positions them well in the current credit cycle.”
“The microfinance cycle is nearing normalisation, reducing stress and supporting financial sector stability.”
“These trends indicate improving stability in the broader banking system and improving operational resilience.” - Link
🧑🏻💻Have you checked out The Chatter?
Every week, we listen to the big Indian earnings calls—Reliance, HDFC Bank, and even smaller logistics firms—and copy the full transcripts. We then remove the fluff and keep only the sentences that could move a share price: a surprise price hike, a cut-back on factory spending, a warning about weak monsoon sales, or a hint from management on RBI liquidity. We add a quick, one-line explainer and a timestamp so you can trace the quote back to the call. The whole thing lands in your inbox as one sharp page of facts you can read in three minutes—no 40-page decks, no jargon, just the hard stuff that matters for your trades and your macro view.
Go check out The Chatter here.
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Calendars
In the coming days, we have the following significant events and corporate actions:
That’s it from us for today. We’d love to hear your feedback in the comments, and feel free to share this with your friends to spread the word!