Nifty shrugs off intraday volatility to close strong near 25,350
Welcome to Aftermarket Report, a newsletter where we do a quick daily wrap-up of what happened in the markets, both in India and globally.
In our latest episode of In The Money by Zerodha video series, we focus entirely on how Indian markets behave around Budget day, and how traders can think about volatility, risk, and positioning during one of the most eventful sessions of the year. As economics, policy, and markets collide on Union Budget day, this episode steps away from headlines and uses data to analyse Budget-day price behaviour, India VIX trends, intraday volatility, and option structures—helping traders frame more structured, risk-aware decisions without anchoring to direction.
Market Overview
Nifty opened with a strong 84-point gap-up at 25,259, extending the late-session momentum from the previous day. The index surged nearly 100 points in the opening hour, testing the 25,360–25,370 zone, before paring gains and slipping back toward the 25,230–25,240 range, all within the first hour. Through the late morning session, Nifty maintained a positive bias and attempted another move higher toward the 25,320–25,340 zone, but persistent selling pressure at higher levels capped the upside and led to a gradual drift lower by noon.
Between 12 PM and 2 PM, weakness intensified as Nifty slipped sharply, breaking below 25,250 and extending losses toward the 25,200 zone, with intraday lows marked around 25,190. However, sentiment turned decisively in the final hour as strong buying emerged, triggering a sharp rebound. Nifty rallied nearly 150 points from the lows, reclaimed 25,300, and closed near the day’s highs at 25,342.75, ending firmly in the green and underscoring a strong late-session comeback after a volatile, two-sided session.
Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain sensitive to global risk appetite, ongoing Q3 earnings, the upcoming Union Budget, and further developments around India–U.S. trade negotiations.
Broader Market Performance:
The broader market had a strong bullish session today. Of the 3,282 stocks that traded on the NSE, 2,451 advanced, 739 declined, and 92 remained unchanged.
Sectoral Performance:
Nifty Energy led the gains with a strong 4.18% rally, followed by Metal and Media. All 12 sectors ended the day in the green, with no sector closing in the red, indicating broad-based market strength.
Here’s the trend of FII-DII activity from the last 5 days:
Change in OI for the day
The following is the change in OI for Nifty contracts expiring on 3rd February:
The maximum Call Open Interest (OI) is observed at 25,500, followed by 25,300, indicating potential resistance at the 25,400 -25,500 levels.
The maximum Put Open Interest (OI) is observed at 25,000, followed by 25,300, suggesting support at 25,100-25,000.
Note: OI is subject to multiple interpretations; however, generally, an increase in Call OI indicates resistance in a falling market, while an increase in Put OI indicates support in a rising market.
Source: Sensibull
Tijori is an investment research platform that has constructed niche indices for various themes and sub-sectors. They help you understand the market performance of narrow slices of the market. You can also track the Promoter buying and other interesting stuff, like Capex activity by the companies in the Tijori App’s idea dashboard
What’s happening in India
India’s industrial production rose 7.9% year-on-year in December, the fastest pace since October 2023. Growth was led by manufacturing, with mining and electricity output also improving. Dive deeper
India’s 10-year G-Sec yield climbed to around 6.7%, the highest in over ten months, as concerns over elevated government borrowing and bond supply outweighed central bank support. Dive deeper
The Indian rupee weakened to a record low of around 91.7 per dollar, pressured by sustained capital outflows after a sharp equity market sell-off. Dive deeper
Moody’s said the India–EU free trade agreement would be credit positive for India, supporting manufacturing, exports and foreign investment through lower tariffs and improved market access. Dive deeper
Blackstone plans a ₹10,000 crore investment in a hyperscale data centre campus in Chennai, starting with 216 MW capacity. The move expands its data centre footprint in India amid rising digital infrastructure demand. Dive deeper
Maruti Suzuki reported a 4% rise in Q3 net profit to ₹3,879 crore. Earnings were impacted by a one-time ₹594 crore provision related to the new labour codes. Dive deeper
TVS Motor reported a 49% year-on-year jump in Q3 consolidated profit to ₹841 crore, driven by strong volume growth and operating leverage. Revenue rose 34% during the quarter, reflecting robust demand across segments. Dive deeper
BEL reported a 21% year-on-year increase in Q3 net profit to ₹1,580 crore. The company continues to see steady execution and momentum in defence-related orders. Dive deeper
SBI Life reported a 5% year-on-year increase in Q3 net profit to ₹577 crore. Net premium income grew 22% during the quarter, reflecting steady growth in business volumes. Dive deeper
What’s happening globally
Brent crude hovered above $67 per barrel after supply disruptions from a severe US winter storm lifted prices to a near four-month high. Dive deeper
Gold climbed above $5,300 per ounce to fresh record highs, supported by a sharp fall in the US dollar and safe-haven demand. Dive deeper
The US Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting, pausing after last year’s easing cycle. Dive deeper
US stock futures moved higher, with S&P 500 futures touching record levels ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and key earnings from major technology firms. Dive deeper
European equities were mixed, with the STOXX 50 rising 0.4% while the broader STOXX 600 was largely flat. Gains in technology stocks followed strong earnings from chipmakers, while luxury stocks weighed on sentiment after weak results and cautious outlooks. Dive deeper
China has approved ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent to purchase over 400,000 Nvidia H200 AI chips, signalling a calibrated easing in its stance on advanced chip imports. Dive deeper
Management chatter
In this section, we highlight interesting comments made by the management of major companies and policymakers from the Indian and Global Economies.
Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology & CEO, ADNOC, on India’s role in global energy demand:
“India is at the centre of the largest expansion in energy demand in history.”
“As the world’s third-largest energy consumer, India will be one of the most decisive forces shaping global energy markets.”
“Meeting India’s growth aspirations will require investment across all forms of energy, and partnerships like the UAE–India relationship will be critical.” - Link
🧑🏻💻Have you checked out The Chatter?
Every week, we listen to the big Indian earnings calls—Reliance, HDFC Bank, and even smaller logistics firms—and copy the full transcripts. We then remove the fluff and keep only the sentences that could move a share price: a surprise price hike, a cut-back on factory spending, a warning about weak monsoon sales, or a hint from management on RBI liquidity. We add a quick, one-line explainer and a timestamp so you can trace the quote back to the call. The whole thing lands in your inbox as one sharp page of facts you can read in three minutes—no 40-page decks, no jargon, just the hard stuff that matters for your trades and your macro view.
Go check out The Chatter here.
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Calendars
In the coming days, we have the following significant events, quarterly results, and corporate actions:
That’s it from us for today. We’d love to hear your feedback in the comments, and feel free to share this with your friends to spread the word!
Precision on the 'V-shape' recovery.
The breadth data highlighted here (2,451 advances) confirms the structural thesis: The Index is being 'managed' (volatility), but the components are being accumulated.
That 25,500 Call Wall is the final ceiling. If the Midcaps hold that 200 DEMA reclaim, the rotation is complete.
Solid analysis.
To the Constitution of India,
and to all institutions vested with its spirit and implementation,
This is a call to act not against the Constitution, but for the Constitution’s greatest promise.
India is at a juncture where economic possibility and institutional limitations coexist. Our Constitution enshrines the dignity of labor, equality of opportunity, and the right to pursue prosperity. However, today, institutional limitations deny millions of Indians and businesses the full realization of these rights.
Businesses are discouraged from scaling up.
Workers remain stuck in the informal economy.
Innovation spreads slowly.
Technological progress outpaces our capacity to harness it.
The consequence is not a lack of talent or hard work but a loss of productivity, earnings, and national potential.
Sound empirical evidence reveals that India has the potential to increase productivity substantially by facilitating business scale, improving access to credit, updating labor regulations, upgrading human capital, and harnessing new technologies such as artificial intelligence in a responsible manner. A 40 percent increase in productivity is a theoretical maximum, but even half of this, achieved through sustained constitutional reform, would raise hundreds of millions of people to higher levels of income and dignity of labor.
This is not a call for unbridled