Nifty rebounds 250 points from lows to close above 25,400; broader markets cool off
Welcome to Aftermarket Report, a newsletter where we do a quick daily wrap-up of what happened in the markets, both in India and globally.
In our latest episode of In The Money by Zerodha video series, we focus entirely on how Indian markets behave around Budget day, and how traders can think about volatility, risk, and positioning during one of the most eventful sessions of the year. As economics, policy, and markets collide on Union Budget day, this episode steps away from headlines and uses data to analyse Budget-day price behaviour, India VIX trends, intraday volatility, and option structures—helping traders frame more structured, risk-aware decisions without anchoring to direction.
Market Overview
Nifty opened flat at 25,345 and came under immediate selling pressure in the opening hour, slipping sharply toward the 25,160–25,170 zone as early volatility weighed on sentiment. After testing intraday lows around 10 AM, buying interest emerged post 11 AM, triggering a steady recovery through the late morning session. The index gradually reclaimed lost ground and moved back above the 25,270 mark by noon.
In the second half, momentum strengthened further as sustained buying pushed Nifty higher, with the index crossing 25,350 after 1 PM and extending gains through the afternoon. Despite minor pullbacks along the way, the broader trend remained positive, and strong late-session buying helped Nifty push past the 25,420–25,430 zone. The index eventually closed at 25,418.90, marking a strong recovery from early losses and a session dominated by dip-buying and improving intraday sentiment.
Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain sensitive to global risk appetite, ongoing Q3 earnings, the upcoming Union Budget, and further developments around India–U.S. trade negotiations.
Broader Market Performance:
The broader market had a mixed session tilted towards bearish bias today. Of the 3,306 stocks that traded on the NSE, 1,383 advanced, 1,822 declined, and 101 remained unchanged.
Sectoral Performance:
Nifty Metal was the top gainer today, rising 3.07%, while Nifty FMCG was the biggest loser with a decline of 0.91%. Out of 12 sectoral indices, 5 ended in the green and 7 closed in the red, indicating a mixed but slightly negative market breadth.
Here’s the trend of FII-DII activity from the last 5 days:
Change in OI for the day
The following is the change in OI for Nifty contracts expiring on 3rd February:
The maximum Call Open Interest (OI) is observed at 25,500, followed by 25,800, indicating potential resistance at the 25,500 -25,600 levels.
The maximum Put Open Interest (OI) is observed at 25,000, followed by 25,300, suggesting support at 25,200-25,100.
Note: OI is subject to multiple interpretations; however, generally, an increase in Call OI indicates resistance in a falling market, while an increase in Put OI indicates support in a rising market.
Source: Sensibull
Tijori is an investment research platform that has constructed niche indices for various themes and sub-sectors. They help you understand the market performance of narrow slices of the market. You can also track the Promoter buying and other interesting stuff, like Capex activity by the companies in the Tijori App’s idea dashboard
What’s happening in India
The rupee settled near a record low at 91.96 against the US dollar, pressured by foreign fund outflows and risk-off global sentiment. Geopolitical uncertainty and higher crude oil prices also weighed on the currency. Dive deeper
India will cut import duties on high-end European cars to 30% from as high as 110% under its trade deal with the EU, easing access for luxury automakers. The agreement aims to boost bilateral trade while gradually lowering tariffs on premium car imports over time. Dive deeper
HDFC Capital has partnered with Curated Living Solutions to set up a ₹1,000 crore platform for institutional rental housing. The venture will focus on developing and operating professionally managed rental homes across major cities. Dive deeper
The Economic Survey outlines three global risk scenarios for 2026, ranging from a world of managed disorder, to a disorderly multipolar breakdown with coercive trade and sanctions, and a low-probability but severe systemic shock that could rival or exceed the 2008 crisis. While India is seen as relatively better positioned due to strong macro fundamentals, a large domestic market, ample forex reserves, and strategic autonomy, the Survey warns that all scenarios share a common risk: disruption to capital flows and sustained pressure on the rupee amid persistent geopolitical turbulence. Dive deeper
Swiggy’s consolidated net loss widened to ₹1,065 crore in Q3FY26, while revenue rose 54% year-on-year to ₹6,148 crore. Dive deeper
Vedanta reported a 61% year-on-year increase in Q3 net profit to ₹5,710 crore, with revenue rising 37% during the quarter. Dive deeper
Adani Power’s Q3 consolidated net profit fell 19% to ₹2,480 crore, with power sales edging up during the quarter. Revenue also declined, reflecting pressure on overall financial performance. Dive deeper
Tata Motors reported a 48% drop in Q3 net profit to ₹705 crore, weighed down by one-time costs, while revenue increased 16% year-on-year. Dive deeper
What’s happening globally
Brent crude futures rose more than 2% to around $70 a barrel, the highest intraday level since September, on increased geopolitical risk premiums amid renewed US threats against Iran and concerns over potential supply disruptions. Dive deeper
The US Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, citing elevated inflation and a stabilising labour market as key factors in its decision. Dive deeper
Gold surged to a record high near $5,600 an ounce as investors sought safety amid rising geopolitical tensions and weakening U.S. economic signals. Silver also rallied sharply, breaking above the $120 mark on safe-haven demand. Dive deeper
The dollar index slipped to around 96 as the impact of official support for a strong dollar faded. Demand for real assets and policy uncertainty weighed on the currency, while the Federal Reserve signalled rates are likely to remain on hold. Dive deeper
US stock futures steadied as investors assessed mixed earnings from major technology firms and the Fed’s decision to hold rates. Dive deeper
Eurozone economic sentiment rose to 99.4 in January, the highest since early 2023, supported by improvements in services, manufacturing and consumer confidence. Dive deeper
Japanese government bonds were mixed as short-dated issues fell in line with US peers after the Federal Reserve held rates and signalled less dovish guidance, lifting Japanese yields. Dive deeper
Nvidia, Microsoft and Amazon are reportedly in talks to invest up to $60 billion in OpenAI as part of a broader funding round to support the AI company’s expansion and infrastructure build-out, according to sources. Dive deeper
Microsoft shares fell after the company reported slower-than-expected growth in its cloud business and record spending on AI infrastructure, despite beating overall revenue estimates. Dive deeper
Management chatter
In this section, we highlight interesting comments made by the management of major companies and policymakers from the Indian and Global Economies.
Daniel Ervér, CEO, H&M on sourcing strategy leveraging India and the trade deal:
“H&M plans to source more from India, leveraging the India-European Union trade agreement and local supply advantages.”
“India’s robust local supply capabilities make it an increasingly attractive sourcing hub for H&M’s global operations.”
“The inclusion of textiles in the trade deal improves trade conditions and supports our strategy to optimise the supply chain.” - Link
Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, about China and chip sales:
“I think Nvidia wants to do more business in China… but political tensions between the American and Chinese governments have derailed those ambitions.”
“There are no active discussions. Currently, we’re not planning to ship anything to China.”
“We’re effectively blocked from selling our AI chips into China for now.” - Link
🧑🏻💻Have you checked out The Chatter?
Every week, we listen to the big Indian earnings calls—Reliance, HDFC Bank, and even smaller logistics firms—and copy the full transcripts. We then remove the fluff and keep only the sentences that could move a share price: a surprise price hike, a cut-back on factory spending, a warning about weak monsoon sales, or a hint from management on RBI liquidity. We add a quick, one-line explainer and a timestamp so you can trace the quote back to the call. The whole thing lands in your inbox as one sharp page of facts you can read in three minutes—no 40-page decks, no jargon, just the hard stuff that matters for your trades and your macro view.
Go check out The Chatter here.
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Calendars
In the coming days, we have the following significant events, quarterly results, and corporate actions:
That’s it from us for today. We’d love to hear your feedback in the comments, and feel free to share this with your friends to spread the word!