Nifty cools down and consolidates near 25,600 ahead of RBI policy
Welcome to Aftermarket Report, a newsletter where we do a quick daily wrap-up of what happened in the markets, both in India and globally.
In our latest episode of In The Money by Zerodha video series, we break down why the human brain is wired to prioritise negative experiences, how loss aversion shapes behaviour, and why media platforms naturally amplify fear over nuance—linking evolutionary survival instincts with modern information overload and market behaviour. Bringing this into trading and investing, we examine how pessimistic narratives skew decision-making, why losses linger longer than wins, and how constant exposure to negative content can quietly distort judgment. We then share practical ways to filter noise, add context, and build better information hygiene so fear doesn’t end up driving financial decisions.
Market Overview
Nifty opened with a small 20-point gap-down at 25,756 and saw sharp volatility in the opening hour, slipping quickly toward the 25,630–25,650 zone before staging a rebound back above 25,700. However, the early recovery lacked follow-through, and the index continued to trade in a choppy, range-bound manner through the late morning session, oscillating between 25,630 and 25,680 amid low conviction.
In the second half, weakness intensified briefly post 2 PM as Nifty slipped to intraday lows near the 25,580 zone. A recovery attempt followed in the final hour, helping the index reclaim the 25,650 zone. Nifty eventually closed near 25,642.80, ending marginally lower, reflecting a volatile, two-sided session marked by intraday swings and consolidation.
Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain sensitive to global risk appetite, ongoing Q3 earnings, tomorrow’s RBI policy, and further clarity on the India–U.S. trade deal announced last night.
Broader Market Performance:
The broader market had a weak session today. Of the 3,242 stocks that traded on the NSE, 1,114 advanced, 2,034 declined, and 94 remained unchanged.
Sectoral Performance:
Nifty PSU Bank was the top gainer of the day with a modest gain of 0.38%, while Nifty Metal was the worst performer, falling 1.02%. Out of the 12 sectoral indices tracked, only 1 closed in the green, while 11 ended in the red, indicating broad-based selling across sectors.
Here’s the trend of FII-DII activity from the last 5 days:
Change in OI for the day
The following is the change in OI for Nifty contracts expiring on 10th February:
The maximum Call Open Interest (OI) is observed at 26,000, followed by 25,800, indicating potential resistance at the 25,900 -26,000 levels.
The maximum Put Open Interest (OI) is observed at 25,500, followed by 25,700 & 25,800, suggesting support at 25,600-25,500.
Note: OI is subject to multiple interpretations; however, generally, an increase in Call OI indicates resistance in a falling market, while an increase in Put OI indicates support in a rising market.
Source: Sensibull
Tijori is an investment research platform that has constructed niche indices for various themes and sub-sectors. They help you understand the market performance of narrow slices of the market. You can also track the Promoter buying and other interesting stuff, like Capex activity by the companies in the Tijori App’s idea dashboard
What’s happening in India
The rupee strengthened to around 90.1 per dollar, its highest level in over three weeks, supported by softer corporate dollar demand. Dive deeper
Indian government bonds were slightly higher as investors awaited the Reserve Bank of India’s debt purchase and policy decision this week, with hope that central bank support could ease market pressures. Dive deeper
India and the US are likely to sign their recently announced trade deal next week, with US tariffs on Indian goods set to fall to 18%. Dive deeper
India and the Gulf Cooperation Council have signed the terms of reference to begin negotiations for a free trade agreement. The move is aimed at boosting trade and investment ties with the six-nation Gulf bloc. Dive deeper
Suzlon Energy reported a 15% year-on-year rise in consolidated profit to ₹445 crore for the December quarter. Revenue surged 42% to ₹4,228 crore, reflecting strong growth in its renewable energy business. Dive deeper
Hindustan Copper reported a 149% year-on-year rise in Q3 consolidated net profit to ₹156 crore. The company also declared an interim dividend for the quarter. Dive deeper
Indian Oil Corporation reported Q3 net profit jumped over four-fold year-on-year to ₹12,126 crore, while revenue rose about 7%. Dive deeper
PVR INOX reported a 167% year-on-year rise in Q3 net profit to ₹96 crore, with revenue up 9% during the quarter. The results reflect stronger operating performance for the multiplex chain. Dive deeper
India and Malaysia are working to establish a multi-layered collaboration in the semiconductor sector. The move signals deeper cooperation as both countries look to strengthen their chip ecosystems. Dive deeper
India’s imports of Russian oil declined further in January as refiners diversified supplies amid sanctions pressure and ongoing US–India trade talks. Dive deeper
India said it is open to exploring crude oil supplies from Venezuela on commercially viable terms, signalling willingness to diversify energy sources amid shifting global dynamics. Dive deeper
What’s happening globally
WTI crude slipped below $64 per barrel as confirmation of US–Iran talks eased fears of supply disruptions. Prices retreated after a recent rally driven by heightened Middle East tensions. Dive deeper
Gold slipped to around $4,920 per ounce as renewed selling followed hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. Expectations of slower rate cuts weighed on prices despite lingering geopolitical risks. Dive deeper
Silver tumbled sharply to around $76 per ounce as renewed selling hit precious metals. A stronger dollar, hawkish Fed signals and easing geopolitical tensions weighed on prices. Dive deeper
The dollar index rose above 97.5 as expectations for slower US rate cuts firmed following hawkish Fed signals. Dive deeper
The Bank of England is expected to hold rates at 3.75% as policymakers await clearer signs that inflation is firmly under control. Dive deeper
Eurozone retail sales fell 0.5% in December, undershooting expectations and reversing the prior month’s gain. The decline was driven by weaker non-food sales, signalling a loss of consumer momentum toward year-end. Dive deeper
Australia’s trade surplus widened to AUD 3.37 billion in December as exports rose and imports declined. Strong shipments of metal ores and minerals, particularly to China, drove the improvement. Dive deeper
Alphabet parent Google has pulled ahead in the AI race, with strong adoption of its Gemini models and rising AI-driven revenue suggesting it is now viewed as a leader versus rivals like OpenAI. Dive deeper
Management chatter
In this section, we highlight interesting comments made by the management of major companies and policymakers from the Indian and Global Economies.
Ramesh Damani, market veteran and BSE member, on Indian IT companies:
"I've been a big bull and a big beneficiary of the big software boom that has engulfed India for the last 30 years or so. But here's someone—someone sent me a tweet yesterday which I'll share with you. They said the top seven Indian software companies are worth about $350 billion. Anthropic is worth $350 billion in itself. Anthropic has 2,000 employees; we have 16 lakh employees. That is a scale of productivity change that is happening in this business."
“These guys are using their cash piles to pay out dividends as opposed to investing in new technology like AI learning models or product development. I think maybe the ship has sailed for these companies in terms of risk ability.
“There are a few innovative companies that are doing that, but by and large, the mass of Indian companies are focused on good old services business, which brings goo,d stable profit margins. I think it is under threat.” - Link
Samir Arora, founder of Helios Capital, on Indian IT companies:
“As I have said many times here, Indian IT companies cannot see beyond their nose—they only worry about next quarter's orders and guidance, and if there is visibility for that, they feel confident.”
“Imagine that 3 days ago, analysts were celebrating the fact that buybacks are a big positive for the industry, at the same time, Google announces that their capex budget can double to USD 175 billion in one year, and our fellows are celebrating that there will be approx 0.6% savings in taxes due to new buyback rules…”
“Earnings don’t have to change in one year, but PEs can change in a jiffy.”
“We have people who object to promoters even investing their own private money in new ideas like personal flying machines or health tech. We hate anyone who does not make money in his business on day 1 and laugh at loss-making businesses.” - Link
🧑🏻💻Have you checked out The Chatter?
Every week, we listen to the big Indian earnings calls—Reliance, HDFC Bank, and even smaller logistics firms—and copy the full transcripts. We then remove the fluff and keep only the sentences that could move a share price: a surprise price hike, a cut-back on factory spending, a warning about weak monsoon sales, or a hint from management on RBI liquidity. We add a quick, one-line explainer and a timestamp so you can trace the quote back to the call. The whole thing lands in your inbox as one sharp page of facts you can read in three minutes—no 40-page decks, no jargon, just the hard stuff that matters for your trades and your macro view.
Go check out The Chatter here.
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Calendars
In the coming days, we have the following significant events, quarterly results, and corporate actions:
That’s it from us for today. We’d love to hear your feedback in the comments, and feel free to share this with your friends to spread the word!