Nifty continues its gradual winning run as it closes near 24,100
Lower oil prices continue to support markets
Welcome to Aftermarket Report, a newsletter where we do a quick daily wrap-up of what happened in the markets, both in India and globally.
In our latest episode of In The Money by Zerodha, we explore one of the most misunderstood ideas in markets: the difference between correlation and causation — and why getting it wrong has a very real price.
We start with a story you won’t forget: a quant from MIT who predicted the S&P 500 with 99% accuracy using butter production and sheep. The math was spotless. The logic was nonexistent. And that’s exactly the point.
Correlation tells you that two things move together. Causation tells you why. Markets generate enormous data — and enormous data generates endless opportunities to find patterns that look meaningful but aren’t.
Markets Today
Nifty opened with a 56-point gap up at 24,045, tracking positive global cues and a further decline in oil prices, with crude slipping below the $80-per-barrel mark. After a brief dip toward the 23,980 level in the opening minutes, the index recovered sharply and climbed steadily through the first hour, crossing 24,080 and testing the 24,090–24,100 zone by around 11:30 AM, marking the day’s high.
The momentum faded thereafter, with Nifty gradually giving up some gains through the late morning and early afternoon sessions. The index drifted lower toward the 24,010–24,030 range by around 1 PM, where it found support.
In the second half, Nifty remained largely range-bound with intermittent recovery attempts. The index bounced back toward the 24,050–24,060 zone around 1:30 PM before slipping again to near 24,020 by 2:30 PM. A strong rally in the final hour lifted the index sharply higher, helping it reclaim the 24,080 mark and close near the day’s highs at 24,085.70.
The session was characterised by a strong opening rally, a prolonged midday consolidation, and a sharp late recovery that helped Nifty finish comfortably above the 24,000 mark.
Sectoral Indices Performance
Winners & Losers
Commodities
FII / DII Flows
Here’s the trend of FII-DII activity from the last 5 days:
Thematic Indices
Tijori’s niche indices, where today’s move sorts pockets of the market beyond standard sector baskets. You can also track promoter buying and other interesting stuff, like Capex activity by the companies in the Tijori App’s idea dashboard
Change in OI for the day
The following is the change in OI for Nifty contracts expiring on 23rd June:
The maximum Call Open Interest (OI) is observed at 24,000, followed by 24,500, indicating potential resistance at the 24,200 -24,300 levels.
The maximum Put Open Interest (OI) is observed at 24,000, followed by 23,900, indicating potential resistance at the 23,900 -23,800 levels.
Note: OI is subject to multiple interpretations; however, generally, an increase in Call OI indicates resistance in a falling market, while an increase in Put OI indicates support in a rising market.
Source: Sensibull
Top Stories in India
The RBI infused ₹72,300 crore of short-term liquidity into the banking system through two Variable Rate Repo (VRR) auctions after surplus liquidity tightened due to advance tax outflows. The move is aimed at ensuring adequate liquidity and smooth functioning of money markets. Dive deeper
FSN E-Commerce Ventures shares rose over 3.5% after Nykaa partnered with OpenAI to integrate its beauty and fashion platforms as connected apps within ChatGPT. The collaboration will allow users to discover products, receive recommendations, and shop directly through ChatGPT conversations, enhancing AI-driven commerce experiences. Dive deeper
IDBI Bank shares surged nearly 18% amid reports that the government is exploring ways to revive the lender’s long-delayed privatization process. Investor sentiment improved on expectations that authorities may reconsider bids from Fairfax Financial Holdings and Emirates NBD, which were previously rejected for not meeting the reserve price. Dive deeper
HiLITE Group plans to invest ₹25,000 crore over the next five years to develop 50 million sq. ft. of retail, IT, healthcare, education, residential, and commercial real estate across Kerala. The company is also accelerating its expansion into Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities through mixed-use developments and its network of HiLITE centres. Dive deeper
BMW Group has launched the new MINI Countryman C in India, with the model now being locally assembled at the company’s Chennai facility instead of being imported from Germany. The move highlights BMW’s growing localization efforts and commitment to expanding premium vehicle manufacturing in India. Dive deeper
Gujarat is set to add two new special economic zones after in-principle approvals were granted to Essar Power and Arham SEZ (I). The projects, located in Devbhumi Dwarka and Kutch, are expected to generate over ₹27,600 crore in exports and create nearly 10,000 jobs over the next five years. Dive deeper
Top Stories Globally
Crude oil slipped below $77 per barrel, its lowest level since early March, as markets priced in a potential US-Iran agreement that could restore Iranian oil exports and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Expectations of additional supply, including the release of over 100 oil-laden tankers currently stranded in the Gulf, have eased concerns about global supply disruptions and weighed on oil prices. Dive deeper
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for a fourth straight meeting as policymakers assess persistent inflation and uncertainty around the disinflation path. The meeting will also mark the first policy decision under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose appointment had initially raised expectations of a more dovish policy stance. Dive deeper
SpaceX has agreed to acquire Anysphere in an all-stock deal valued at $60 billion. The acquisition strengthens SpaceX’s presence in enterprise AI software and gives it ownership of Cursor, one of the fastest-growing AI-powered coding tools. Dive deeper
U.S. retail sales rose 0.9% month-on-month in May, beating expectations of a 0.5% increase and accelerating from April’s revised 0.4% gain, signalling resilient consumer spending despite inflationary pressures. Dive deeper
Management Chatter
In this section, we highlight interesting comments from the management of major companies and policymakers in the Indian and Global Economies.
Agriculture Secretary Atish Chandra, on the El Nino and steps to mitigate the likely impact on kharif crops:
“The prediction on when El Nino will set in is still to come. By the end of this month, IMD will come out with the forecast, and then the picture will be clearer. We will then be in the thick of the kharif sowing season and will know how it is going to pan out.”
“Whether Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will remain neutral or change is something we are watching. IMD is still hopeful that there will be some development that will negate the El Nino effect.”
El Nino has historically not severely affected India, with 2014-15 being the notable exception, and even then, agricultural production held up. Advances in climate-resilient seed varieties have since strengthened the sector's adaptive capacity. - Link
Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw, Co-founder of Biocon Ltd. sees a significant opportunity in the global market for insulin:
“In five years, we could be the number one insulin company in the world. We are one of the few companies globally that has the scale to address that opportunity.”
The current situation is a “windfall for me because I’m able to now fill in that gap and my insulin business has just taken off.”
“We have to be a bit aware that generic GLP-1s are a crowded market, I think being a generics player, we are quite realistic about the fact that there’s a lot of global competition.” - Link
Corporate Actions & Events
Corporate Actions
Published by Zerodha. Not investment advice. Data from NSE, BSE, and MCX.
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hated this one for the misleading ad claiming 0 brokerage. No hidden charges, no gimmicks.