Nifty consolidates near 25,300 ahead of Union Budget despite global pressure
Welcome to Aftermarket Report, a newsletter where we do a quick daily wrap-up of what happened in the markets, both in India and globally.
In our latest episode of In The Money by Zerodha video series, we focus entirely on how Indian markets behave around Budget day, and how traders can think about volatility, risk, and positioning during one of the most eventful sessions of the year. As economics, policy, and markets collide on Union Budget day, this episode steps away from headlines and uses data to analyse Budget-day price behaviour, India VIX trends, intraday volatility, and option structures—helping traders frame more structured, risk-aware decisions without anchoring to direction.
Market Overview
Nifty opened with a sharp 170-point gap-down at 25,248, tracking weak global cues and an overnight risk-off sentiment. The index remained volatile in the opening hour, oscillating between the 25,260–25,310 zone, as buyers attempted to stabilise the early sell-off but failed to build sustained momentum. Through the late morning session, Nifty continued to trade choppily with a mild negative bias, gradually drifting lower and slipping toward the 25,250 area by noon amid low conviction and mixed intraday flows.
In the second half, weakness briefly intensified post 1 PM, dragging the index to intraday lows near the 25,215 zone. However, a strong rebound unfolded after 1:30 PM, lifting Nifty sharply toward the 25,350–25,360 zone by mid-afternoon. Some profit-taking emerged in the final hour, trimming gains, but the index managed to hold above the 25,300 mark. Nifty eventually closed at 25,320.65, ending well off the day’s lows and highlighting a volatile, two-sided session marked by early weakness and a solid recovery in the latter half.
Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain sensitive to global risk appetite, ongoing Q3 earnings, the upcoming Union Budget, and further developments around India–U.S. trade negotiations.
Broader Market Performance:
The broader market had a mixed session tilted towards bullish bias today. Of the 3,258 stocks that traded on the NSE, 1,827 advanced, 1,318 declined, and 113 remained unchanged.
Sectoral Performance:
Nifty Media emerged as the top gainer with a 1.85% rise, while Nifty Metal saw the steepest decline, dropping 5.21%. Out of the 12 sectoral indices, 7 ended in the green and 5 in the red, indicating a mixed market performance for the day.
Here’s the trend of FII-DII activity from the last 5 days:
Change in OI for the day
The following is the change in OI for Nifty contracts expiring on 3rd February:
The maximum Call Open Interest (OI) is observed at 25,500, followed by 25,800 & 25,300, indicating potential resistance at the 25,500 -25,600 levels.
The maximum Put Open Interest (OI) is observed at 25,000, followed by 25,300, suggesting support at 25,200-25,100.
Note: OI is subject to multiple interpretations; however, generally, an increase in Call OI indicates resistance in a falling market, while an increase in Put OI indicates support in a rising market.
Source: Sensibull
Tijori is an investment research platform that has constructed niche indices for various themes and sub-sectors. They help you understand the market performance of narrow slices of the market. You can also track the Promoter buying and other interesting stuff, like Capex activity by the companies in the Tijori App’s idea dashboard
What’s happening in India
India’s fiscal deficit stood at ₹8.6 lakh crore, or 54.5% of the full-year target, during April–December, slightly lower than 56.7% a year ago. The Centre has pegged the FY26 fiscal deficit at 4.4% of GDP, or ₹15.69 lakh crore. Net tax receipts rose to ₹19.4 lakh crore, while non-tax revenue increased to ₹5.4 lakh crore during the period. Dive deeper
The rupee weakened to a record low of 91.98 per dollar, marking its steepest monthly decline in over three years. The currency remained under pressure from sustained foreign outflows, a strong dollar, and global risk aversion. Dive deeper
NTPC Green Energy Ltd reported a sharp 74% year-on-year decline in consolidated net profit to ₹17.32 crore for the December quarter, weighed down by higher expenses. Total income, however, rose to ₹684.22 crore from ₹581.46 crore a year earlier. Dive deeper
South Indian Bank plunged 15%, marking their biggest single-day fall on record, after it emerged that MD & CEO PR Seshadri will not seek re-appointment. The bank said Seshadri informed the board of his decision to step down for personal reasons and will continue in the role until his term ends on September 30, 2026. Dive deeper
Bajaj Auto reported a 19% year-on-year rise in standalone net profit to ₹2,502.8 crore for the December quarter. Revenue also grew 19% to a record ₹15,220 crore, crossing the ₹15,000-crore mark for the first time, driven by record volumes and a richer product mix. Dive deeper
SBI General Insurance reported 15% growth in 9M FY26 gross direct premium, with net profit at ₹522 crore. Dive deeper
Ambuja Cements reported a sharp 91% year-on-year fall in Q3 net profit to ₹204 crore. Revenue rose 20% during the quarter, supported by higher volumes and realizations. Dive deeper
Google India reported an almost flat FY25 net profit of ₹1,437 crore as revenue declined 3.2% to ₹5,340 crore. Higher employee and tax expenses weighed on profitability. Dive deeper
What’s happening globally
Brent crude futures dipped below $69 per barrel but remained on track for their strongest monthly performance in months, supported by a higher geopolitical risk premium amid renewed US–Iran tensions. Dive deeper
Gold fell over 7% to below $4,980 per ounce on profit-taking, though it remained on track for its strongest monthly gain in decades. Dive deeper
Silver fell sharply toward $95 per ounce as investors booked profits and the dollar rebounded. Despite the drop, the metal remained on track for strong monthly gains, supported by safe-haven demand and tight physical supply. Dive deeper
The 10-year US Treasury yield rose above 4.27% amid speculation over President Trump’s choice for the next Federal Reserve chair. Dive deeper
Chinese equities fell as mining stocks declined on profit-taking in metals after a sharp rally. Despite the pullback, both the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices posted solid gains for January, supported by policy expectations and AI-related momentum. Dive deeper
Japan’s Nikkei slipped as technology stocks weakened on concerns around AI investment sustainability. Despite the dip, the index closed the month with strong gains. Dive deeper
Adidas reported another quarter of double-digit growth, with preliminary Q4 results showing strong currency-neutral sales growth and improved margins. The company also announced a share buyback plan of up to €1 billion in 2026. Dive deeper
Bitcoin slid to a two-month low at $82,300 amid speculation that the next U.S. Federal Reserve chair could tighten liquidity, strengthening the dollar and pressuring crypto markets. The cryptocurrency has now lost about a third of its value since hitting record highs in October. Dive deeper
Management chatter
In this section, we highlight interesting comments made by the management of major companies and policymakers from the Indian and Global Economies.
US President Donald Trump about the Federal Reserve chair announcement:
“I’ll be announcing the Fed chair tomorrow morning.”
“It’s going to be somebody that is very respected, somebody that’s known to everybody in the financial world. And I think it’s going to be a very good choice. I hope so.”“A lot of people think that this is somebody that could have been there a few years ago.” - Link
Erik Ekudden, CTO of Ericsson, underlining the strategic weight India carries in the company’s global roadmap:
“We have been very strong in India for a long time, but this is now our biggest employee presence in any country,”
“India has moved to the forefront as a leading market, and that has changed the speed of development here. If you look at Ericsson’s complete portfolio, you will find R&D activities somewhere in India across almost all areas.” - Link
🧑🏻💻Have you checked out The Chatter?
Every week, we listen to the big Indian earnings calls—Reliance, HDFC Bank, and even smaller logistics firms—and copy the full transcripts. We then remove the fluff and keep only the sentences that could move a share price: a surprise price hike, a cut-back on factory spending, a warning about weak monsoon sales, or a hint from management on RBI liquidity. We add a quick, one-line explainer and a timestamp so you can trace the quote back to the call. The whole thing lands in your inbox as one sharp page of facts you can read in three minutes—no 40-page decks, no jargon, just the hard stuff that matters for your trades and your macro view.
Go check out The Chatter here.
So, we’re now on Reddit!
We love engaging with the perspectives of readers like you. So we asked ourselves - why not make a proper free-for-all forum where people can engage with us and each other? And what’s a better, nerdier place to do that than Reddit?
So, do join us on the subreddit, chat all things markets and finance, tell us what you like about our content, and where we can improve! Here’s the link — alternatively, you can search r/marketsbyzerodha on Reddit.
See you there!
Calendars
In the coming days, we have the following significant events, quarterly results, and corporate actions:
That’s it from us for today. We’d love to hear your feedback in the comments, and feel free to share this with your friends to spread the word!