Nifty closes near 24,000 on the back of softer oil prices
Brent crude prices fall below 80$
Welcome to Aftermarket Report, a newsletter where we do a quick daily wrap-up of what happened in the markets, both in India and globally.
In our latest episode of In The Money by Zerodha, we explore one of the most misunderstood ideas in markets: the difference between correlation and causation — and why getting it wrong has a very real price.
We start with a story you won't forget: a quant from MIT who predicted the S&P 500 with 99% accuracy using butter production and sheep. The math was spotless. The logic was nonexistent. And that's exactly the point.
Correlation tells you that two things move together. Causation tells you why. Markets generate enormous data — and enormous data generates endless opportunities to find patterns that look meaningful but aren't.
Markets Today
Nifty opened with a 70-point gap up at 23,924, tracking positive global cues and a further decline in oil prices, with WTI crude slipping below the $80-per-barrel mark. After a steady start, the index witnessed some volatility in the opening hour, before recovering sharply to test the 23,970 zone around 10:45 AM.
The momentum faded thereafter, with Nifty gradually drifting lower through the late morning session. The index slipped back toward the 23,920–23,940 range and remained largely range-bound around those levels until early afternoon.
Buying interest returned in the second half, as the index steadily moved higher post 1:15 PM, crossed the 23,970 mark around 2 PM, and surged toward the 24,000 level. Despite a brief bout of volatility near the day’s highs, Nifty held firm as it remained in a range between 23,970 and 23,990 and eventually closed near the top of the day’s range at 23,989.15.
The session was characterised by a strong second-half recovery, with lower crude prices and stable global sentiment helping the index finish just shy of the 24,000 mark.
Sectoral Indices Performance
Realty surged 2.26%, IT jumped 1.78%, and Media climbed 1.4%. FMCG added 1.22%. Metal cracked 1.55%, Auto slipped 0.32%, and Pharma edged down 0.26%. Eight of twelve sectors closed green.
Winners & Losers
Commodities
Crude dropped 2.42% to ₹7,434 per barrel, a meaningful tailwind for India. Gold inched up 0.22%, silver slipped 0.28%. The rupee firmed 0.17% to 94.53.
Global Markets
Bond Yields & Currency
India 10Y yield at 6.863%, US 10Y at 4.47%. The rupee’s strength and lower crude should ease bond market pressure if sustained.
FII / DII Flows
Here’s the trend of FII-DII activity from the last 5 days:
Thematic Indices
Tijori’s niche indices, where today’s move sorts pockets of the market beyond standard sector baskets. You can also track promoter buying and other interesting stuff, like Capex activity by the companies in the Tijori App’s idea dashboard
Change in OI for the day
The following is the change in OI for Nifty contracts expiring on 23rd June:
The maximum Call Open Interest (OI) is observed at 24,000, followed by 24,500, indicating potential resistance at the 24,200 -24,300 levels.
The maximum Put Open Interest (OI) is observed at 24,000, followed by 23,500, suggesting support at 23,600-23,500.
Note: OI is subject to multiple interpretations; however, generally, an increase in Call OI indicates resistance in a falling market, while an increase in Put OI indicates support in a rising market.
Source: Sensibull
Top Stories in India
HCLTech has invested ₹1,427 crore ($150 million) in Sarvam AI, acquiring a 10.46% stake in the company. The investment anchors Sarvam AI’s Series B funding round and values the startup at $1.5 billion, making it one of India’s newest AI unicorns. Dive deeper
Tata Consultancy Services will take a one-time exceptional charge of $70 million in Q1 FY27 after the US Supreme Court rejected its appeal in a trade secrets case. The ruling leaves TCS with a total exposure of about $220 million, including a $168 million damages award in favour of DXC Technology. Dive deeper
Leading FMCG companies, including Colgate-Palmolive, Dabur India, and Hindustan Unilever, have increased toothpaste prices in June to offset rising raw material and packaging costs. The price hikes reflect broader inflationary pressures across the FMCG sector as companies seek to protect margins. Dive deeper
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone has expanded its strategic partnership with US-based Kaleris to deploy an AI-enabled operating platform across its ports and logistics network. The multi-year collaboration aims to enhance automation, improve operational efficiency, and support next-generation digital port management across APSEZ’s infrastructure. Dive deeper
India’s services sector has become an increasingly important driver of exports, with its share in total exports rising from 33.8% in FY15 to 48.8% in FY26. Services exports nearly tripled to $421.3 billion during the period, supported by the growth of the IT sector, expansion of global capability centres (GCCs), and rising adoption of digitally delivered services. Dive deeper
Suzlon Energy shares gained over 4% after the government initiated a review of ageing wind turbines that could be repowered across the country. The move is seen as a potential growth opportunity for the wind energy sector, as replacing older turbines with newer, more efficient models could drive fresh equipment demand. Dive deeper
Fertiliser stocks were among the top gainers as expectations of the Strait of Hormuz reopening eased concerns over disruptions in the supply of key raw materials. Improved prospects for fertilizer imports and lower input costs boosted sentiment across the sector. Dive deeper
Top Stories Globally
Crude oil fell more than 3% to below $78 per barrel, extending its losing streak to a fourth straight session and hitting its lowest level since early March. The decline was driven by expectations that a US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could restore oil supplies and ease concerns over global energy disruptions. Dive deeper
Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1%, the highest level in over 30 years and the first time rates have reached 1% since 1995. The move reflects the central bank’s continued policy normalization amid a weak yen and rising inflationary pressures, partly driven by higher energy costs linked to the Iran conflict. Dive deeper
Just days after its IPO, SpaceX surged past Amazon by market capitalization, briefly crossing the $3 trillion mark and becoming one of the five largest publicly traded companies in the US. Dive deeper
Robinhood will cut about 10% of its full-time workforce, or roughly 290 employees, as part of efforts to streamline operations and reduce management layers. The company said a leaner organizational structure would help improve decision-making speed and operational efficiency. Dive deeper
China’s economy showed signs of uneven growth in May, as retail sales fell 0.6%, their first monthly decline since December 2022, highlighting weak consumer demand despite the Labour Day holiday. Dive deeper
Yum Brands has agreed to sell its Pizza Hut business for $2.7 billion, with private equity firm LongRange Capital acquiring operations outside mainland China and Yum China Holdings purchasing the China business. The deal marks a strategic exit from the struggling pizza chain as Yum Brands sharpens its portfolio focus. Dive deeper
Management Chatter
In this section, we highlight interesting comments from the management of major companies and policymakers in the Indian and Global Economies.
Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta on reshaping its workforce around artificial intelligence (AI):
"Given the complexity of these changes, we've made mistakes and will almost certainly make more, Meta is focused on providing as much “stability” as possible for employees.”
“I don't want to overpromise because the world is changing in ways that are out of our control.”
“By creating important new roles for people, this also allowed us to shrink the size of teams knowing that if we make mistakes in some places, then we could transfer some people back.” - Link
Atul Chaturvedi, Executive Chairman of Shree Renuka Sugars on E100 Fuel:
“The major issue as far as the sugar sector is concerned is that they are still struggling with very low price of ethanol,”
“Ethanol being sourced from the maize sector is closer to about Rs 72, and for the sugar sector, made from juice, it is around Rs 65,” As a result, sugar mills may be reluctant to divert more sugar towards ethanol production if sugar prices remain attractive.
“If the returns from ethanol for the sugar sector are lower than sugar, then why would they make it?” - Link
Corporate Actions & Events
Corporate Actions
Published by Zerodha. Not investment advice. Data from NSE, BSE, and MCX.
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