Welcome to Aftermarket Report, a newsletter where we do a quick daily wrap-up of what happened in the markets, both in India and globally.

In our latest episode of In The Money by Zerodha, from Friedrich Hayek’s 1945 insight that prices aggregate dispersed knowledge, to Kenneth Arrow’s state-contingent securities, and Eugene Fama’s Efficient Market Hypothesis — the intellectual foundations of prediction markets run surprisingly deep.

We trace how these ideas were brought to life, from a bar conversation in Iowa City that became the Iowa Electronic Markets to the billion-dollar platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, navigating regulatory battles with the CFTC in the US today.

This episode also examines what all of this means for India — a country where prediction markets don’t yet exist, but where Indian events are already being actively traded on platforms thousands of miles away, and where global funds may be using these prices as live intelligence on our own political and economic outcomes.

Markets Today

Nifty opened with a small 16-point gap up at 23,671 despite strong overnight gains in global markets, as crude oil prices continued to cool on reports of further progress in geopolitical talks. The index saw a strong start, testing the 23,800 zone in the opening hour.

After multiple rangebound moves between 23,750 and 23,800 throughout the first half, Nifty gradually moved higher, climbing toward the 23,835 zone around 1 PM, marking the day’s high.

However, the momentum faded in the second half as profit-booking emerged. The index gradually drifted lower, slipping below the 23,750 mark and testing the 23,700–23,720 zone in the final hour, and eventually closed the day at 23,719.30.

The session was marked by a firm first half supported by positive global cues, followed by a gradual second-half decline as the index once again failed to sustain higher levels despite supportive external factors.

Sectoral Indices Performance

Winners & Losers

Commodities

FII / DII Flows

Here’s the trend of FII-DII activity from the last 5 days:

Thematic Indices

Tijori’s niche indices, where today’s move sorts pockets of the market beyond standard sector baskets. You can also track the Promoter buying and other interesting stuff, like Capex activity by the companies in the Tijori App’s idea dashboard

Change in OI for the day

The following is the change in OI for Nifty contracts expiring on 26th May:

The maximum Call Open Interest (OI) is observed at 24,000, followed by 23,800, indicating potential resistance at the 23,800 -23,900 levels.
The maximum Put Open Interest (OI) is observed at 23,500, followed by 23,700, suggesting support at 23,600-23,500.

Note: OI is subject to multiple interpretations; however, generally, an increase in Call OI indicates resistance in a falling market, while an increase in Put OI indicates support in a rising market.

Source: Sensibull

Management Chatter

In this section, we highlight interesting comments from the management of major companies and policymakers in the Indian and Global Economies.

Kumar Rajagopalan, Executive Director and CEO, Retailers Association of India (RAI), on steady demand across categories and regions:

“Retail in India has witnessed a modest 7 per cent growth in April ‘26. Decent but not exciting. Global cost pressures are real, and they are showing up in how businesses are operating across categories. India has navigated these pressures better than many others. Consumers still want to spend — that intent is there, and that matters. But retailers are being careful, and rightly so.” - Link

Arvind Panagariya, Chairman of the 16th Finance Commission and former vice-chairman of NITI Aayog, is suggesting RBI on the rupee slide:

“Do not let the psychology of Rs 100 per dollar determine your policy response. 100 is just a number, like 99 and 101,”
Whether the oil shortage is short-lived or long-lived, the right response at this moment is to let the rupee depreciate. If the shortage is short-lived, that is, for three months to a year, the rupee will substantially recover once the oil import bill shrinks.
“Trying to defend the rupee will continue to bleed the reserves until they are exhausted.” - Link

Aftermarket Report by Zerodha

Markets continue to struggle at higher levels