Global carnage takes Nifty back to 23,800
Rising dollar remains a key worry point
Welcome to Aftermarket Report, a newsletter where we do a quick daily wrap-up of what happened in the markets, both in India and globally.
In our latest episode of In The Money by Zerodha, we dig into one of the oldest debates in trading and investing: the difference between luck and skill — and why getting it wrong can cost you far more than money.
We start with a story you won’t forget: on the day oil prices went negative for the first time in 138 years, nine traders working from home in Essex made $660 million in a single afternoon. The trade was right. But was that genius — or just circumstance?
To answer that, we walk through five frameworks: Morgan Housel’s repeatability test, Michael Mauboussin’s luck-skill spectrum, Daniel Kahneman’s illusion of skill, Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s survivorship bias, and what the SPIVA data reveals about an entire industry built on mistaking beta for alpha.
Markets Today
Nifty opened with a 32-point gap down at 24,071, tracking weak global cues and sharp cuts across major Asian markets. Despite the subdued start, the index moved higher in the opening hour, climbing toward the 24,120–24,130 zone by around 10 AM and briefly holding near the day’s highs through the morning session till 11:30 AM.
However, sentiment weakened sharply around noon, triggering a steep sell-off. Nifty slipped below the 24,000 mark and continued drifting lower through the early afternoon, falling toward the 23,910–23,930 range by around 1 PM.
The weakness persisted in the second half, with only brief recovery attempts. The index traded in a narrow range between 23,870 and 23,920 for much of the afternoon before another wave of selling emerged in the final 30 minutes, dragging Nifty below the 23,850 mark, with the index extending losses toward the day’s low near 23,790–23,800. Nifty eventually closed at 23,824.10, near the lows of the day.
The session was marked by a sharp reversal from morning highs, sustained selling through the afternoon, and heavy profit-booking into the close, resulting in a weak finish near the day’s lows.
Sectoral Indices Performance
Winners & Losers
Commodities
FII / DII Flows
Here’s the trend of FII-DII activity from the last 5 days:
Thematic Indices
Tijori’s niche indices, where today’s move sorts pockets of the market beyond standard sector baskets. You can also track promoter buying and other interesting stuff, like Capex activity by the companies in the Tijori App’s idea dashboard
Change in OI for the day
The following is the change in OI for Nifty contracts expiring on 30th June:
The maximum Call Open Interest (OI) is observed at 24,000, followed by 24,100, indicating potential resistance at the 24,100 -24,200 levels.
The maximum Put Open Interest (OI) is observed at 24,000, followed by 23,500, suggesting support at 23,700-23,600.
Note: OI is subject to multiple interpretations; however, generally, an increase in Call OI indicates resistance in a falling market, while an increase in Put OI indicates support in a rising market.
Source: Sensibull
Top Stories in India
India’s private sector growth slowed to a three-month low in June, with HSBC’s flash Composite PMI easing to 57.4 from 59.3 in May as weaker demand weighed on both manufacturing and services activity. New orders grew at their slowest pace since March, while business confidence slipped to its lowest level since January amid competitive pressures and gas supply shortages. Dive deeper
India could emerge as a key buyer of Iranian crude after the U.S. temporarily eased sanctions on Iran’s oil sector, allowing the production, sale, and transport of Iranian oil and petroleum products until August 21. The 60-day relief could provide Indian refiners access to additional crude supplies and potentially lower import costs amid easing geopolitical tensions. Dive deeper
Meta Platforms has appointed Kunal Shah as the global head of WhatsApp, succeeding Will Cathcart. As part of the transition, Meta will invest about $900 million in Cred at a valuation of $4.5 billion. Dive deeper
SEBI has proposed extending Direct Market Access (DMA) to all investors, a facility currently limited to institutional participants. If implemented, the move would allow retail investors to place orders directly into the market, subject to appropriate risk management checks, leveraging advances in trading technology. Dive deeper
The Nifty Metal index fell over 3.2% as global metal prices retreated after the previous session’s rally driven by U.S.-Iran peace hopes. Sentiment was further pressured by growing expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike later this year and a stronger dollar, which weighed on commodity prices. Dive deeper
Top Stories Globally
South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI plunged as much as 10%, triggering a 20-minute circuit breaker after investors booked profits following a record-setting rally fueled by AI optimism and foreign inflows. The sell-off was led by semiconductor heavyweights like SK Hynix falling over 10% and Samsung Electronics dropping 7.5%. Dive deeper
Crude oil prices stabilized around $74 per barrel as markets assessed progress toward a resolution of the Iran conflict. A new 60-day U.S. waiver allowing global buyers, including American refiners, to purchase Iranian crude and fuels has improved supply expectations, helping keep oil prices about 40% below their recent peak. Dive deeper
Heineken has appointed Rafael Oliveira as its new CEO, marking a rare move to bring in an external leader as the brewer seeks to revive demand growth. Oliveira will join from JDE Peet's on October 1, succeeding Dolf van den Brink. Dive deeper
Micron Technology has signed an agreement with Anthropic to supply memory and storage products, while also making a strategic investment in the AI firm’s latest funding round. The partnership deepens Micron’s exposure to the fast-growing AI ecosystem as Anthropic prepares for a potential IPO. Dive deeper
SpaceX shares extended their decline in pre-market trading, falling below their listing price and putting the company at risk of dropping under a $2 trillion market capitalization. After three consecutive sessions of losses, SpaceX has shed more than $600 billion in value, including a nearly $400 billion wipeout in a single day amid a broader technology stock selloff. Dive deeper
Accenture shares rose in pre-market trading after the company increased its FY26 share repurchase target by $2 billion to $7.5 billion. The expanded buyback program, up 62% year-on-year, underscores management's confidence despite recent concerns over slowing demand. Dive deeper
Management Chatter
In this section, we highlight interesting comments from the management of major companies and policymakers in the Indian and Global Economies.
Anant Goenka, RPG Group Vice Chairman and FICCI President, on Chinese manufacturing companies:
“Businesses operate at margins (2-3%) global boards would never approve. Only market share matters and there is no concept of ROI. The few who survive are the toughest and the best”
“The scale of automation and R&D investment at these companies is built for a 10-year time horizon, not a quarterly one. They celebrate innovators, have walls of patents and dark factories with unmatched efficiency”
“Cheap capital, land, power, and policy support at a scale that fundamentally changes unit economics. As long as you service interest (@ only 2-3%), debt doesn’t have to be paid back. This isn’t a level playing field” - Link
Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, has warned against the concentration of power among a handful of AI companies:
"You can't say, hey, all white-collar jobs are gone, and this could even be a weapon, and we will use all the power to build data centers; the public wouldn't tolerate a handful of models and companies “doing all of the learning for the world."
"No amount of just narrative is going to do it because where we are now, we have to sort of walk the walk," the industry must "do the hard work in earning the social permission" by ensuring people feel they have agency and economic opportunity. - Link
Corporate Actions & Events
Corporate Actions
Published by Zerodha. Not investment advice. Data from NSE, BSE, and MCX.
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