Final hour rally lifts Nifty to 25,200 as markets cheer India–EU FTA
Welcome to Aftermarket Report, a newsletter where we do a quick daily wrap-up of what happened in the markets, both in India and globally.
In our latest episode of In The Money by Zerodha video series, we focus entirely on how Indian markets behave around Budget day, and how traders can think about volatility, risk, and positioning during one of the most eventful sessions of the year. As economics, policy, and markets collide on Union Budget day, this episode steps away from headlines and uses data to analyse Budget-day price behaviour, India VIX trends, intraday volatility, and option structures—helping traders frame more structured, risk-aware decisions without anchoring to direction.
Market Overview
Nifty opened flat at 25,063 and witnessed sharp volatility in the opening hour, slipping quickly toward the 24,930–24,950 zone before staging an equally swift rebound to around 25,170, all within the first hour. Trade remained choppy through the first half, with the index swinging sharply between 25,000 and 25,150 as buyers and sellers struggled for control, despite positive news flow around the long-awaited India–EU FTA confirmation.
In the second half, sentiment remained largely unchanged, marked by wide intraday swings on both sides. After a brief dip toward the 25,000 zone post 2 PM, strong buying emerged in the final hour, triggering a sharp rally of over 200 points. Nifty surged past the 25,230 mark and eventually closed firmly in the green near 25,175.40 (based on the 30-minute average closing price), highlighting a strong late-session recovery after an otherwise volatile, two-sided session.
Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain sensitive to global risk appetite, ongoing Q3 earnings, the upcoming Union Budget, and further developments around India–U.S. trade negotiations.
Broader Market Performance:
The broader market had a mixed session today. Of the 3,314 stocks that traded on the NSE, 1,632 advanced, 1,566 declined, and 116 remained unchanged.
Sectoral Performance:
Nifty Metal was the top gainer, rising 3.07%, while Nifty Media was the worst performer, falling 1.44%. Of the 12 sectoral indices, 8 closed in the green and 4 in the red, reflecting a broadly positive session across sectors.
Here’s the trend of FII-DII activity from the last 5 days:
Change in OI for the day
The following is the change in OI for Nifty contracts expiring on 3rd February:
The maximum Call Open Interest (OI) is observed at 25,500, followed by 25,000 & 25,200, indicating potential resistance at the 25,400 -25,500 levels.
The maximum Put Open Interest (OI) is observed at 25,000, followed by 25,100 & 24,800, suggesting support at 25,000-24,900.
Note: OI is subject to multiple interpretations; however, generally, an increase in Call OI indicates resistance in a falling market, while an increase in Put OI indicates support in a rising market.
Source: Sensibull
Tijori is an investment research platform that has constructed niche indices for various themes and sub-sectors. They help you understand the market performance of narrow slices of the market. You can also track the Promoter buying and other interesting stuff, like Capex activity by the companies in the Tijori App’s idea dashboard
What’s happening in India
India and the European Union have finalised a landmark free trade agreement after nearly two decades of negotiations, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Tuesday. The deal will open India’s vast market to freer trade with the EU, its largest trading partner, as both sides seek to diversify ties amid global uncertainty. Dive deeper
India is set to receive tariff concessions on over 99% of its exports to the European Union under the proposed free trade agreement, with duties eliminated immediately on 90% of exports and rising to 93% over seven years. The deal is expected to significantly benefit labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, leather, gems and jewellery, and engineering goods, with EU tariffs on $33.5 billion worth of Indian exports removed at implementation. Dive deeper
Asian Paints shares slipped 3% after the company reported a 4.8% year-on-year decline in consolidated net profit to ₹1,073.9 crore. Revenue, however, rose to ₹8,867 crore, indicating steady topline growth despite margin pressure. Dive deeper
Axis Bank rose 5% after it reported a 3% year-on-year rise in Q3 FY26 net profit to ₹6,490 crore. Net interest income grew 5% to ₹14,287 crore with NIM at 3.64%, while asset quality improved marginally, with gross NPAs at 1.40% and net NPAs at 0.42%. Dive deeper
Tata Consumer Products Ltd reported a 38% year-on-year rise in net profit to ₹384.6 crore for the December 2025 quarter. Revenue grew 15% to ₹5,112 crore, crossing the ₹5,000 crore mark for the first time, driven by 13% growth in India and 11% growth in international markets. Dive deeper
Vedanta has approved an offer for sale to divest up to 6.7 crore shares, or a 1.59% stake, in Hindustan Zinc. At the current price of ₹726.50 per share, the OFS is valued at nearly ₹4,868 crore. Dive deeper
India’s 10-year G-Sec yield rose to around 6.67% as concerns over fresh state bond supply outweighed central bank liquidity support. Investors remained cautious ahead of fiscal signals and elevated borrowing expectations. Dive deeper
Embraer and Adani Aerospace signed an MoU to develop a regional aircraft manufacturing ecosystem in India. Plans include setting up the country’s first commercial aircraft final assembly line. Dive deeper
Canada and India agreed to expand trade in crude oil, LNG and petroleum products as they reset energy ties following a diplomatic thaw. The move is part of Canada’s effort to diversify energy exports and deepen cooperation with India’s energy sector. Dive deeper
India has flagged investment opportunities of up to $500 billion in its energy infrastructure as it aims to move toward energy independence. Dive deeper
What’s happening globally
Brent crude slipped to around $65.2 per barrel on the resumption of Kazakhstan’s oil exports. Losses were partly cushioned by US supply disruptions and geopolitical risks ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. Dive deeper
Gold rose over 1% to around $5,080 per ounce, supported by safe-haven demand amid escalating trade and geopolitical tensions. Dive deeper
Silver jumped over 6% to above $110 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand amid rising trade and geopolitical tensions. The rally was also supported by investor moves away from bonds and currencies, with attention on US policy risks and the Fed. Dive deeper
US stock futures were largely flat after benchmark indices posted moderate gains, with focus shifting to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later this week. Dive deeper
US natural gas futures fell over 6% to $3.37 per million British thermal units as traders booked profits after a sharp recent rally. Prices remain sensitive to cold-weather disruptions, with production and LNG export flows still under pressure. Dive deeper
Hong Kong’s exports jumped 26.1% year-on-year to a record USD 512.8 billion in December, marking the strongest growth since early 2024. Dive deeper
Japan’s Nikkei rose around 0.85% as a softer yen supported technology and chip-related shares. Market focus remained on currency moves and sector leadership amid cautious broader sentiment. Dive deeper
China’s industrial profits rose 0.6% in 2025, the first annual increase since 2021, supported by manufacturing and utilities. Foreign-invested firms drove gains, while state-owned enterprises and mining saw declines. Dive deeper
Microsoft has launched its next-generation in-house AI chip along with new software tools, aiming to reduce reliance on Nvidia’s AI ecosystem. The move highlights growing competition among cloud providers to build and control their own AI infrastructure. Dive deeper
Nvidia has invested $2 billion in CoreWeave, becoming its second-largest shareholder. The investment deepens their partnership to expand AI-focused data centre capacity across the United States. Dive deeper
Saudi Aramco launched a $4 billion four-tranche bond, attracting strong demand with order books exceeding $21 billion. The robust appetite allowed Aramco to tighten pricing, including narrowing the spread on its three-year bonds to 60 bps over U.S. Treasuries, according to IFR. Dive deeper
Management chatter
In this section, we highlight interesting comments made by the management of major companies and policymakers from the Indian and Global Economies.
PM Narendra Modi on FTA between India and EU:
“Yesterday, a big agreement was signed between the European Union and India.”
“People around the world are calling this the mother of all deals. This agreement will bring major opportunities for the 1.4 billion people of India and the millions of people in Europe.” - Link
Richard Harris, Chief Market Strategist, Jacobs Levy Equity Management on global market resilience:
“Global markets have shown resilience amid tariff noise and Fed uncertainty thanks to what we call the ‘Taco Effect’.”
“The Taco Effect refers to the way investors balance risk and return by diversifying into different asset classes, effectively buffering volatility.”
“This dynamic has helped maintain market stability even when headline risks appear elevated.” - Link
🧑🏻💻Have you checked out The Chatter?
Every week, we listen to the big Indian earnings calls—Reliance, HDFC Bank, and even smaller logistics firms—and copy the full transcripts. We then remove the fluff and keep only the sentences that could move a share price: a surprise price hike, a cut-back on factory spending, a warning about weak monsoon sales, or a hint from management on RBI liquidity. We add a quick, one-line explainer and a timestamp so you can trace the quote back to the call. The whole thing lands in your inbox as one sharp page of facts you can read in three minutes—no 40-page decks, no jargon, just the hard stuff that matters for your trades and your macro view.
Go check out The Chatter here.
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Calendars
In the coming days, we have the following significant events, quarterly results, and corporate actions:
That’s it from us for today. We’d love to hear your feedback in the comments, and feel free to share this with your friends to spread the word!